CORONA VIRUS (COVID-19): Latest update of the evolution in the World, 14 May 2020

The most recent report (report 114, May 14th) published by the World Health Organization indicates that more than 4 Millions of people have been globally confirmed as COVID-19 cases (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports).

With respect to my previous update (as of April 29th, http://www.emigrantrailer.com/2020/04/30/corona-virus-covid-19-updated-situation-in-the-world-29-april-2020/), there were significant changes and, for a proper analysis, I needed to organize differently the data from the selected nations. In general, the average daily values refer to those calculated in the last two weeks, unless differently specified.

FIGURE 1 (Worldwide: cases > 1.000.000)

Figure 1 – COVID 19 (cases >1.000.000) in the World as of 13 May 2020

The United States is the only country in this chart with more than 1,3 Million of cases. In the last two weeks the average daily increase (>24.000 cases/day) has not significantly reduced compared to the last week in April.

FIGURE 2 (Worldwide: 100.000 < cases < 300.000)

Figure 2 – COVID 19 (100.000 < cases < 300.000) in the World as of 13 May 2020

The scenario is completely different compared to some weeks ago. The Russian Federation is now the second worldwide nation for number of cases (242.271); this is the consequence of a significantly high average daily increase (≈ 10.000 cases/day).

The United Kingdom still shows a significant daily increase (≈ 4.600 cases/day) and it is not far to pass the total number of cases of Spain.

Spain and Italy had an improvement, by lowering the daily increase, respectively down to 1.200 cases/day and 1.400 cases/day. Their curves seem to be in the right direction to flatten. This condition seems already present in Germany, which had slightly lower than 1.000 cases/day in the last two weeks.

Turkey has also improved with about 2.000 cases/day compared to 3.500 cases/day in the previous last weeks of April. On the other hand, the trend for Brazil is worrying with a constant increase (≈ 7.200 cases/day). The Republic of Iran had a stable situation until one week ago: unfortunately,the last days indicated a daily increase of cases (≈ 1.500 cases/day).

FIGURE 3 (Worldwide: 20.000 < cases < 100.000)

Figure 3 – COVID 19 (20.000 < cases < 100.000) in the World as of 13 May 2020

China maintains its unique situation with its extremely low daily increase (≈ 6 cases/day). Moreover, China is no longer followed by European nations. In fact, India and Peru had a significant increase in the last two weeks, both with more than 2800 cases/day. On the other hand, Canada slightly improved with an average daily increase of about 1.500 cases/day.

Belgium and Netherland significantly improved in the last two weeks. They lowered their daily increase, respectively down to 460 and 320 cases/day. Much better is the situation in Switzerland, with a curve almost flattened with about 80 cases/day in the last weeks.

The situation in Mexico, Pakistan and Chile is very similar with average daily cases between 1.200 and 1.400. Ecuador shows a strange situation; most of data are published with regular delay or retroactively corrected. It is difficult to define a trend.

Portugal and Sweden have similar total number of cases, respectively 27913 and 27272; however, while Portugal has almost halved the average daily increase (≈ 250 cases/day) compared to the last weeks in April, Sweden has basically unchanged it (≈ 550 cases/day). Last nation in this chart is Singapore, that does not differ too much from Sweden for the daily rate of increase.

FIGURE 4 (Worldwide: cases < 20.000)

Figure 4 – COVID 19 (cases < 20.000) in the World as of 13 May 2020

In the last two weeks, several nations significantly improved their own situation: Austria (≈ 40 cases/day), Japan (≈ 155 cases/day), South Korea (≈ 15 cases/day), Norway (≈38 cases/day), Australia (≈16cases/day), Malaysia (≈ 63 cases/day) and Thailand (≈5 cases/day). All of them have flattened the curve.

Constant increase is documented in Indonesia (≈374 cases/day), Philippines (≈240 cases/day), South Afrika (≈455 cases/day), Egypt (≈360 cases/day) and Nigeria (≈250 cases/day). In particular, the situation in South Afrika worries, due to the fact that the rate of cases increases day by day: when we consider the last days, it is already above 600 cases/day.

Finally, Argentina (≈160 cases/day), Morocco (≈155 cases/day) and Algeria (≈170 cases/day) continues to have similar increase, but the situation seems to be under control compared to their respective neighboring countries.

FIGURE 5 (Worldwide: 10.000 < deaths < 100.000)

Figure 5 – COVID 19 (10.000 < deaths < 100.000) in the World as of 13 May 2020

Compared to two weeks ago, the situation is basically unchanged in terms of most critical nations.

The new entry is represented by Brazil, which has a very negative trend (≈500 deaths/day). The United States of America (USA) almost reached 80000 deaths and have about 2000 deaths/day, not improving at all compared to last weeks in April.

For the European nations, the United Kingdom (UK) remains the one with the worst situation and now leads this sad ranking in Europe. UK is followed by Italy, which continues to improve over the weeks (≈250 deaths/day). Looking to the cumulative deaths, France (≈237 death/day) and Spain (≈220 deaths/day) differ only for 48 deaths among them.

FIGURE 6 (Worldwide: 2.000 < deaths < 10.000)

Figure 6 – COVID 19 (2.000 < deaths < 10.000) in the World as of 13 May 2020

During the last weeks, the situation improved in Belgium and Germany: both documented about 100 deaths/day. Better situation is for Turkey, Netherlands, Sweden and the Republic of Iran: they showed a similar improvement, lowering below 70 deaths/day in the last two weeks. China had only 1 death in the last two weeks: the ideal situation for all other nations.

Instead, Mexico worsened the situation, doubling the daily number of deaths (150 deaths/day), while Canada maintained almost a stable situation with about 160 deaths/day. But, of course, this rate is still very high.

The last four nations have an increasing trend, which hopefully slow down in the upcoming weeks. Specifically, Ecuador and India had about 100 deaths/day, the Russian Federation about 90 deaths/day and Peru 84 deaths/day. To note that Peru is still slightly below the 2000 threshold.

FIGURE 7 (Worldwide: 500 < deaths < 2.000)

Figure 7 – COVID 19 (500 < deaths < 2.000) in the World as of 13 May 2020

Switzerland (≈13 deaths/day), Portugal (≈15 deaths/day) and Indonesia (≈16 deaths/day) have improved their status and, with this trend, it seems very difficult that they can exceed 2000 deaths in a short time. Austria does even better with an average of 4 deaths/day in the last weeks.

Philippines (≈16 deaths/day), Egypt (≈13 deaths/day) and Algeria (≈6 deaths/day) show a constant status compared to last weeks in April.  The increase remains low.

Different is the situation for the Pakistan (30 deaths/day), which almost doubled its rate of deaths/day, and for Japan (20 deaths/day), which shows a huge fluctuation day by day. This is a signal that the situation is not really stable, even if the average daily deaths is not critical compared to other nations.

FIGURE 8 (Worldwide: deaths < 500)

Figure 8 – COVID 19 (deaths < 500) in the World as of 13 May 2020

The chart can be easily divided into two categories: those nations with a flattened curve, those nations with a constant increase.

In the first category, there are: South Korea (≈1 deaths/day), Norway (≈2 deaths/day), Morocco (< 2 deaths/day), Malaysia (< 1 deaths/day), Australia (<1 deaths/day), Thailand (2 deaths in the last two weeks) and Singapore (7 deaths in the last two weeks). Basically, all of them seem to have reached the desired situation to contain the lethality of  this virus.

In the second category, there are: Chile (≈9 deaths/day), Argentina (≈9 deaths/day), South Afrika (≈8 deaths/day) and Nigeria (≈8 deaths/day). All of them worsened compared to last weeks of April. The situation is not yet critical, but these are important signals to act and to prevent worsening of the scenario.

SUMMARY IN FIVE POINTS

  1. Globally, the number of cases exceeded 4,1 Million and the number of deaths is almost 300 thousands;
  2. The situation in the USA remains very critical;
  3. Bad signals are coming from the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, Brazil, India and Peru;
  4. Other countries in South-America and in Africa show constant increase of cases & deaths;
  5. Several countries in Europe, Asia, Oceania and North-Africa show signs of improvement, with flatter curves than few weeks ago, indication that the rate of increase slowed down

Next update in a couple of weeks.

Andrea De Filippo

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Please find below the link to each Figure presented in post:

Figure 1: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID19-World-Art19_Figura-01_Cases_Emigrantrailer_20200515.png

Figure 2: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID19-World-Art19_Figura-02_Cases_Emigrantrailer_20200515.png

Figure 3: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID19-World-Art19_Figura-03_Cases_Emigrantrailer_20200515.png

Figure 4: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID19-World-Art19_Figura-04_Cases_Emigrantrailer_20200515.png

Figure 5: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID19-World-Art19_Figura-05_Deaths_Emigrantrailer_20200515.png

Figure 6: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID19-World-Art19_Figura-06_Deaths_Emigrantrailer_20200515.png

Figure 7: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID19-World-Art19_Figura-07_Deaths_Emigrantrailer_20200515.png

Figure 8: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID19-World-Art19_Figura-08_Deaths_Emigrantrailer_20200515.png

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