CORONA VIRUS (COVID-19): Latest update from the World, 16 April 2020

Figure 1 – COVID 19 Cases (> 20000) in the World updated as of 16 April 2020

The latest report (report 87, April 16th) published by the World Health Organization indicates that almost 2 Millions of people have been globally confirmed as COVID-19 cases (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports).

With respect to my last update (April 10th, http://www.emigrantrailer.com/2020/04/11/corona-virus-covid-19-latest-update-from-the-world-10-april-2020/), three new nations have reached more than 20000 COVID-19 cases (see Figure 1): Russian Federation, Canada and Brazil. Thus, overall, we have 15 nations, distributed per continents as follows: 10 in Europe, 3 in Americas, 2 in Asia, 0 in Africa, 0 in Oceania.

Figure 2 – COVID-19 Deaths (> 1500), in the World updated as of 16 April 2020

Simultaneously, two new nations have reached more than 1500 deaths (see Figure 2): Turkey and Brazil.

The situation in the United States of America (USA) remains extremely critical and dramatic, with more than 30000 cases/day and more than 1800 deaths/day in average. As expected, this increase is even worse than the past seven days. To give an idea, the current number of cases in USA is higher than the sum of the cases for Spain, Italy, Germany, and France which are respectively second, third, fourth and fifth in the worldwide ranking of COVID-19 cases (see Figure 1). Moreover, USA took 7 days to move from 10000 to more than 20000 deaths; Italy took 17 days and Spain has not even yet reached such high number.

Spain confirmed the negative trends and in one week the gap with Italy increased by more than 10000 cases (Figure 1): 17633 for Spain vs 165155 for Italy. One week ago, the gap was only about 1000 cases (152446 vs 143626). However, in the last week, both countries have reduced the number of cases/days. Specifically, Spain reduced from 6400 cases/day to 4400 cases/day; Italy reduced from about 4100 cases/day to 3600 cases/day. The situation differs for the average deaths/day (Figure 2). Namely, during last week, Italy slightly improved from 640 down to 570 deaths/day, while Spain had a better improvement from 780 deaths/day down to 570 deaths/day.

Compared to one week ago, Germany reduced its average number of cases/days, while France did not really change in comparison with the previous week. When we look at the number of deaths, the situation in France is still very critical with about 900 deaths/day. With this trend, France might overpass Spain for number of deaths in the next few days (see Figure 2). A similar situation is for the United Kingdom. In the last week, it showed the worst European trendline with about 5500 cases/day (Figure 1) and more than 800 deaths/day (Figure 2).

The situation continues to worsen in Turkey as well, with more than 4000 cases/day and about 100 deaths/day. This week, Turkey reached more than 1500 deaths (Figure 2). On the contrary, Switzerland reduced its cases/day and deaths/day. But, the last number of the most recent report indicates again an increase. The number of deaths is approaching the 1000 threshold (see Figure 4). Belgium and Netherland had a similar trend of cases/day in the last week but a completely different situation for the deaths, with Belgium significantly worse (320 vs 120 deaths/day for Netherland). With an average of 2500 cases/day, the Russian Federation reached more than 25000 cases in the last week (Figure 1). Luckily, the number of deaths is still not very high (232, Figure 4).

China and Iran are more or less stable or slightly improving, compared to the previous analysis. In particular, China had only 7 deaths in the last week. On the other hand, the Republic of Iran showed a decrease in the average cases/day (from 2400 down to 1600) and death/day (from 135 down to 112).

Canada and Brazil are two new entries with more than 25000 reached in this week (Figure 1). However, their situation differs for the average of deaths/day with Brazil showing a worse situation (Figure 2) compared to Canada (Figure 8).

The next part of the analysis focuses on specific cases for geographical areas and continents.

Figure 3 – COVID 19 Cases in other European nations updated as of 16 April 2020

Figure 3 shows the situation for other four European countries.

Portugal and Austria are two nations with similar overall population and population density. However, the last days showed a different trendline (Figure 3) with a constant increase of cases for Portugal and a tendency to flatten the curve for Austria. The same tendency is visible in Figure 4 for the overall number of deaths. A similar consideration can be done looking at Sweden and Norway. They are two neighboring nations but with a completely different evolution of COVID-19 cases, with about 500 cases/day and 90 cases/day respectively in the last week. The difference is more evident in terms of deaths/day: about 60 for Sweden vs 8 for Norway (see Figure 4).

Figure 4 – COVID 19 Deaths in other European nations updated as of 16 April 2020

One side comment looking at deaths number in Switzerland (Figure 4). It can be observed an increase of deaths until April 7th, a subsequent decrease on April 8th and again an increase in the following days. This should not surprise because the published data by the WHO are continuously checked and verified as the days pass. Thus, corrections at later time might be applied by WHO and this affects the “normal” trendline. This is also the reasons why I am limiting my analysis at an update/week. This is also why I do not refer to websites that show instantaneous updates.

Figure 5 and Figure 6 refer to other Asian and Oceanian countries.

Figure 5 – COVID 19 Cases in other Asian and Oceanian nations updated as of 16 April 2020

In general, there are some countries which show a clear tendency to flatten the evolution curve: South Korea, Australia and Thailand. However, new entries also indicate that the assessment is not valid for all the specific areas of these two continents.

Specifically, South Korea has flattened the curve with a constant increase of about 30 cases/day and less than 5 deaths/day. The situation is completely different for Japan that experienced an increase of cases and deaths in the last days. Malaysia has a stable increasing trend in the last month (Figure 5 and Figure 6). Recently, Philippines overpassed Malaysia for number of cases, reaching more than 5000 documented cases. Concerning the deaths, its trend is more negative with an average of 25/day in the last week (Figure 6).

Figure 6 – COVID 19 Deaths in other Asian and Oceanian nations updated as of 16 April 2020

Singapore remains a “special” situation. In fact, it is one of the nations with COVID-19 cases since January and with a tendency to increase the cases day by day (last week average of > 270 cases), but with a very low amount of deaths (10 in absolute). Australia seems to have stabilized the situation in the last week with about 60 cases/day and a clear tendency to flatten the curve for both cases and deaths (Figure 5 and Figure 6).

India has worsened its situation in the last two weeks, becoming the third country in Asia (after China & Republic of Iran) for number of cases (> 12000). The negative trend is also very visible when we look at the deaths in Figure 6: in terms of absolute values is still low (below 450) compared to its population, but it seems to worsen day by day. Indonesia has lower number of COVID-19 cases but it remains the worst for number of deaths (469, Figure 6). In the last week, as said, Thailand has flattened the curve (Figure 5). On the contrary, Pakistan continues to increase the number of cases week by week, overpassing both Malaysia and Philippines for the absolute number (Figure 5).

The following two figures, Figure 7 and Figure 8, refer to American and African countries.

Figure 7 – COVID 19 Cases in other American and African nations updated as of 16 April 2020

South American countries showed an increase of cases in the last week. Apart from the Brazil (Figure 1 & Figure 2), Peru, Chile and Ecuador consistently increased in the last week (Figure 7). The trend is analogous for Mexico.  On the other hand, the rate of increase is much slower for Argentina. The latter has a similar trend of the following African nations: Algeria, Morocco, South Africa and Egypt. Nigeria still confirms very few cases compared to its population.

Figure 8 – COVID 19 Deaths in other American and African nations updated as of 16 April 2020

When we look at Figure 8, apart from Canada which has almost 1000 deaths, all the other nations are below 500 documented deaths. Together with Canada, Mexico showed the worst trend: in one week, it has increased from about 100 deaths to more than 400 deaths. Ecuador and Algeria are still showing an increase but with a lowest rate in the last week. Moreover, it is possible to observe that Algeria has significantly high number (336) compared to the relatively low number of COVID-19 cases (2070), described in Figure 7. All the other countries, luckily still do not show a dramatic increase of deaths. In particular, among these selected countries, South Africa and Nigeria show the lowest number of deaths so far (Figure 8).

Next analysis in about one week.

Andrea De Filippo

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Below is the link for each specific figure:

Figure 1: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Art-12-Figure-1-e1587113570155.png

Figure 2: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Art-12-Figure-2.png

Figure 3: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Art-12-Figure-3.png

Figure 4: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Art-12-Figura-4.png

Figure 5: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Art-12-Figure-5.png

Figure 6: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Art-12-Figure-6.png

Figure 7: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Art-12-Figure-7.png

Figure 8: http://www.emigrantrailer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Art-12-Figure-8.png

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