CORONA VIRUS (COVID-19): Latest update from the World, 10 April 2020

Figure 1 – COVID-19 Cases (>20000) in the World updated at 10 April 2020

The latest data published by the World Health Organization showed a further increase of cases in the United States of America (USA), with an average of more than 30000 cases/day only in the last week (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports). The current number of cases (425899) in USA is higher than the sum of the cases for Spain, Italy and Germany, which are respectively second, third and fourth in the worldwide ranking of COVID-19 cases (see Figure 1). The increase has been much faster than in all other countries: this is clearly visible observing the trends in the last seven weeks (see Figure 1).

Figure 2 – COVID-19 Deaths (>1000) in the World updated at 10 April 2020

The number of deaths linked to COVID-19 in USA is also increasing faster than in any other countries (Figure 2). Unless significant changes in the next days, it is expected to overpass both Italy and Spain in a relatively short time.

As hypothesized one week ago, Spain confirmed the negative trends and overpassed Italy for number of cases (Figure 1). However, this increase is lowering in the last week: 6000 cases/day vs 7700 cases/day in the former week. Moreover, the trend for the deaths is also not increasing as few weeks ago and it seems to be parallel to the Italian one (see Figure 2).

The lockdown measures introduced in Italy one month ago seem to produce the positive effect, with a tendency to flatten both number of cases and deaths (Figure1 and Figure 2). But it is still an increase, and the attention cannot be yet lowered. The average values of COVID-19 were 4000 cases/day during last week.

Compared to one week ago, for the number of cases (Figure 1), the trend has been not changed dramatically for France, Germany and UK: France had about 4000 cases/day, Germany about 5000 cases/day and UK about 4500 cases/day. Instead, during last week, China and the Republic of Iran showed a reduction of average cases/day, compared to the previous week: China had 70 cases/day vs 100 cases/day; Republic of Iran had 2250 vs 3000 cases/day.

Figure 1 shows new countries compared to my former charts: Turkey, Belgium, Switzerland and Netherlands. These four European countries have reached more than 20000 cases in the last days. The trend is particularly negative for Turkey, that increased to 3500 cases/day vs 2000 cases/day in the former week. Belgium and Netherland have an unchanged trend in the last two weeks. Switzerland showed positive signals in the last days, with a decrease of cases/day from about 1100 down to 650.

Figure 2 shows the countries with higher than 1000 deaths. It can be observed that not all the countries displayed in Figure 1 are present. The reason is that higher number of cases does not automatically bring to higher number of deaths, due to the fact that the latter is depending on several factors which can differ dramatically among countries and areas.

Table 1 – Situation for several European countries, 10 April 2020

In general, the severity of the situation can be understood evaluating both the absolute values and the values compared to the population. Table 1 reports the status for most of the European countries, while Table 2 for some nations in other continents.

Thus, considering this aspect, when we focus on the deaths, it is possible to observe that the severity of situation in Europe is particularly high (BAD) for other countries like Sweden, even if the number of cases is still below 10000 (see Table 1).

Table 2 – Situation for other worldwide countries, 10 April 2020

Looking at Table 2, a similar consideration can be done for Ecuador and Canada where the situation is more critical than in other countries, if we look at the absolute values and the percentage values versus the population. At the same, the total number of deaths in Brazil is not a positive sign, given the increase in the last few days.

Andrea De Filippo

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